IMPACT SPORTS NEWS
Goings and Comings.
College and Pro football are now in full swing as the leaves start to change in the upper part of our great country. This will be weekly column of thoughts and opinions from the previous week, along with what it ahead. Let’s roll on before you have to start raking….....
COACHING
When selecting games an important aspect to consider is coaching. Let me give you a few examples from this past weekend. Watching the Tenn. /Florida game was extremely boring compared too many of the classics over the last decade. The Gators ran up the middle numerous times to no avail. QB Martin was ineffective against a strong defense and was exposed as having an average arm at best. Why back-up QB Leak did not play more befuddled us. Greater running ability and a livelier arm could have changed the direction of the contest.
I personally went to the Packers/Cardinals game and was amazed. Arizona coming off an embarrassing 38-0 shutout figured to play better. Against good teams that should not matter. The Packers threw to my recollection FIVE passes longer then 10 yards thru three quarters. WHY? Did the Cards pick-up 4 new DB’s during the week that we missed? Or did C. Sherman and his staff have another extremely conservative gameplan that kept the inept Sunshine boys in the game? The results speak for themselves.
MAC Covers the country!
Toledo was no fluke against Pitt. out gaining them 551-389 in total yards and holding them to 74 yards rushing on 28 attempts. Miami-O dominated Mountain West power Colo. State. Total yards 536-388, FD 27-18, 206-39 rushing. Marshall was strong up front by rushing for 210 yards on 45 attempts (4.7 ypa) against a normally strong K-State rush D. Not having a QB Roberson as their starter was not enough of an excuse, because the Thundering Herd was also playing their back-up. NIU proved that the Maryland game was no fluke by beating the Crimson Tide on the road. RB Turner had 158 rushing against a strong ‘Bama defense. Finally. Akron beat Howard U. 65-7. The thought here is maybe they should schedule a game against a couple, say William & Mary.
Quick Hits…………
Wyoming and Air Force gained a total of 996 yards in a wild contest. Each team doing their part in their own ironic way. Air Force running for 431 yards and the Cowboys with 398 yards passing and getting the easy cover…...Okla. State WR Woods was on the receiving end of SEVEN TD’s…..Misleading stats: Texas Tech out gained N.C. State 681-474 in losing 49-21…..The Hurricanes had an uninspiring 300 total yards……Missouri surrendered 197 yards rushing against M. Tenn. St. in their over-time win.
Team of the Weak
Mississippi State changed defensive co-coordinator in the off-season in hopes of improving that side of the ball. So far results are very poor. Oregon and Tulane are solid passing teams that will give anyone trouble. But Houston? The Bulldogs trailed 28-0 in the first half with the help of 4 turnovers. They did manage to score 28 points, but still lost by 14 points to the Cougars. C. Sherril’s team is now 0-3 SU and ATS and he might be on his way out of Starkville.
Learning Curve
It is an excellent idea to check-out HD’s who won SU as away pups. This system provides results of nearly 70%. Last week’s situational team was Toledo who won SU against #9 Pittsburgh. This week we will be looking at California +13, Michigan State +7 and the Ravens +3.
NFL Notes
Home Dogs are an unusually poor 2-10 ATS in the 2003 season. Normally these dogs win at 59%. This is of note and may well prove to be an early anomaly. Definitely worth following as the season progresses.
Tennessee Titans held a 28-11 FD edge over the Saints on way to a 15-point victory and an easy cover. RB McAllister was held to 8 yards on 11 carries.
Teams that do or don’t cover 3 straight games are worth a look in the NFL. These situations win 62% over the last ten years. This week keep a wary eye on the Vikings, Chiefs, Broncos and Colts who have all covered their first three outings. Of note, the Raiders and Chargers are both 0-3 ATS, but one of them should cover because they play each other.
One of our favorite stats and indicators in the NFL is rushing attempts. In the NFL if you rush the ball 25 times you will be in position to win. Week THREE results:
SU record 8-2 ATS record 6-4 To Date SU 35-5 ATS 33-7
How can you tell if a team is going to rush 25 or more times? Of course a variety of factors need to be assessed, but we recommend the following:
*Coach’s patience and commitment to running game
*History of running the ball
*Strength of offense line
*Weakness of defensive line
*Lead running back who can close game
LINE MOVEMENT
One feature that Impact Sports likes to follow is line movement early in the week. This is considered when the “sharps” look to take advantage of weak lines and help move them accordingly. Once posted, we review them later in the day on Tuesday and see what direction these guys are thinking. Last year, CFB was only 129-130 in early line movement, but the NFL was a profitable 36-25 ATS.
Last Week CFB 2-2
Season to Date 10-8
Last Week NFL 1-2
Season to Date 3-8
This Week’s Line Movement
Nebraska Open -7.5 Tuesday -10
Colo. State Open -4.5 Tuesday -6.5
Tex. A&M Open -2 Tuesday +1
Virg. Tech Open -23 Tuesday -21
N.Texas Open -16.5 Tuesday -18.5
Utah State Open -12.5 Tuesday -14.5
Redskins Open -1.5 Tuesday -3
KC/ Balt. Open Tot. 45.5 Tuesday Tot. 43.5
Surprising Spreads
Washington -10 over Stanford The Huskies are 17-2 SU and 13-5-1 ATS against the Cardinal.
Memphis -16.5 over Arkansas St. With Homecoming on tap for the Tigers, how serious will they take a team that just lost by 47-points?
Bills 4 over Eagles What would the number have been four weeks ago on this contest?
NE/Wash Total 42.5 With two solid defenses playing well, this game appears to UNDERmine both offenses.
Goings and Comings.
College and Pro football are now in full swing as the leaves start to change in the upper part of our great country. This will be weekly column of thoughts and opinions from the previous week, along with what it ahead. Let’s roll on before you have to start raking….....
COACHING
When selecting games an important aspect to consider is coaching. Let me give you a few examples from this past weekend. Watching the Tenn. /Florida game was extremely boring compared too many of the classics over the last decade. The Gators ran up the middle numerous times to no avail. QB Martin was ineffective against a strong defense and was exposed as having an average arm at best. Why back-up QB Leak did not play more befuddled us. Greater running ability and a livelier arm could have changed the direction of the contest.
I personally went to the Packers/Cardinals game and was amazed. Arizona coming off an embarrassing 38-0 shutout figured to play better. Against good teams that should not matter. The Packers threw to my recollection FIVE passes longer then 10 yards thru three quarters. WHY? Did the Cards pick-up 4 new DB’s during the week that we missed? Or did C. Sherman and his staff have another extremely conservative gameplan that kept the inept Sunshine boys in the game? The results speak for themselves.
MAC Covers the country!
Toledo was no fluke against Pitt. out gaining them 551-389 in total yards and holding them to 74 yards rushing on 28 attempts. Miami-O dominated Mountain West power Colo. State. Total yards 536-388, FD 27-18, 206-39 rushing. Marshall was strong up front by rushing for 210 yards on 45 attempts (4.7 ypa) against a normally strong K-State rush D. Not having a QB Roberson as their starter was not enough of an excuse, because the Thundering Herd was also playing their back-up. NIU proved that the Maryland game was no fluke by beating the Crimson Tide on the road. RB Turner had 158 rushing against a strong ‘Bama defense. Finally. Akron beat Howard U. 65-7. The thought here is maybe they should schedule a game against a couple, say William & Mary.
Quick Hits…………
Wyoming and Air Force gained a total of 996 yards in a wild contest. Each team doing their part in their own ironic way. Air Force running for 431 yards and the Cowboys with 398 yards passing and getting the easy cover…...Okla. State WR Woods was on the receiving end of SEVEN TD’s…..Misleading stats: Texas Tech out gained N.C. State 681-474 in losing 49-21…..The Hurricanes had an uninspiring 300 total yards……Missouri surrendered 197 yards rushing against M. Tenn. St. in their over-time win.
Team of the Weak
Mississippi State changed defensive co-coordinator in the off-season in hopes of improving that side of the ball. So far results are very poor. Oregon and Tulane are solid passing teams that will give anyone trouble. But Houston? The Bulldogs trailed 28-0 in the first half with the help of 4 turnovers. They did manage to score 28 points, but still lost by 14 points to the Cougars. C. Sherril’s team is now 0-3 SU and ATS and he might be on his way out of Starkville.
Learning Curve
It is an excellent idea to check-out HD’s who won SU as away pups. This system provides results of nearly 70%. Last week’s situational team was Toledo who won SU against #9 Pittsburgh. This week we will be looking at California +13, Michigan State +7 and the Ravens +3.
NFL Notes
Home Dogs are an unusually poor 2-10 ATS in the 2003 season. Normally these dogs win at 59%. This is of note and may well prove to be an early anomaly. Definitely worth following as the season progresses.
Tennessee Titans held a 28-11 FD edge over the Saints on way to a 15-point victory and an easy cover. RB McAllister was held to 8 yards on 11 carries.
Teams that do or don’t cover 3 straight games are worth a look in the NFL. These situations win 62% over the last ten years. This week keep a wary eye on the Vikings, Chiefs, Broncos and Colts who have all covered their first three outings. Of note, the Raiders and Chargers are both 0-3 ATS, but one of them should cover because they play each other.
One of our favorite stats and indicators in the NFL is rushing attempts. In the NFL if you rush the ball 25 times you will be in position to win. Week THREE results:
SU record 8-2 ATS record 6-4 To Date SU 35-5 ATS 33-7
How can you tell if a team is going to rush 25 or more times? Of course a variety of factors need to be assessed, but we recommend the following:
*Coach’s patience and commitment to running game
*History of running the ball
*Strength of offense line
*Weakness of defensive line
*Lead running back who can close game
LINE MOVEMENT
One feature that Impact Sports likes to follow is line movement early in the week. This is considered when the “sharps” look to take advantage of weak lines and help move them accordingly. Once posted, we review them later in the day on Tuesday and see what direction these guys are thinking. Last year, CFB was only 129-130 in early line movement, but the NFL was a profitable 36-25 ATS.
Last Week CFB 2-2
Season to Date 10-8
Last Week NFL 1-2
Season to Date 3-8
This Week’s Line Movement
Nebraska Open -7.5 Tuesday -10
Colo. State Open -4.5 Tuesday -6.5
Tex. A&M Open -2 Tuesday +1
Virg. Tech Open -23 Tuesday -21
N.Texas Open -16.5 Tuesday -18.5
Utah State Open -12.5 Tuesday -14.5
Redskins Open -1.5 Tuesday -3
KC/ Balt. Open Tot. 45.5 Tuesday Tot. 43.5
Surprising Spreads
Washington -10 over Stanford The Huskies are 17-2 SU and 13-5-1 ATS against the Cardinal.
Memphis -16.5 over Arkansas St. With Homecoming on tap for the Tigers, how serious will they take a team that just lost by 47-points?
Bills 4 over Eagles What would the number have been four weeks ago on this contest?
NE/Wash Total 42.5 With two solid defenses playing well, this game appears to UNDERmine both offenses.
